How's El Nino?

Assess current ENSO indicators based on key atmospheric and oceanic indicators.

Atmosphere & ocean status

How Likely? has been deactivated due to discontinued data-feeds.

How’s El Nino? provides up-to-date information on the status of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). It presents the current values of an Atmospheric Index (Southern Oscillation Index) and an Ocean Index (Oceanic Niño Index - Niño 4.3 SSTa’s), as well as a time-series of these values over the previous 24 months. It also presents a summary statement direct from Bureau of Meteorology’s “Model Outlooks of ENSO Conditions and ENSO Wrap-up” ( ) , and a map of sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Pacific and Indian Oceans.

How Likely? provides indicators of the current state of the ENSO cycle, along with BoMs current ENSO headlines, and seas surface temperature anomaly map.

How’s El Nino? is for users’ who understand the importance of the current status and development of ENSO cycles on local weather and climate. Monitoring these cycles can provide an indication of likely rainfall and temperature trends over the coming year. It can be used to monitor current mature ENSO patterns to observe if the pattern is currently breaking down, or if it is strong enough to continue on into a second cycle indicating that current climate patterns may continue for some time.

Questions this tool answers

  • Provides and indication of what is the current ENSO pattern (El Niño, La Niña or Neutral conditions) , how long it may last, or if a new pattern is developing.
  • What are atmospheric (SOI) and ocean (sea surface temperature) indicators saying about weather in the coming months?
  • What is the Australian Bureau of Meteorology’s opinion on the current Status of ENSO.


How’s El Nino? does not require any user-defined inputs. It automatically sources the following data from external sites:

  • Current ENSO summary statement from the Bureau of Meteorology (;
  • Daily SOI data form Queensland Government (
  • Monthly Nino3.4 SST anomaly data from NOAA (\data\sstoi.indices)
  • Sea Surface Temperature map is sourced from (


Data retrieved is presented as text and graphically. A statement is provided from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, while atmospheric and oceanic indicators are presented as Fire-gauge charts and line-plots. A map


How’s El Nino? has been adapted to the iOS Smart Phone software by RPS Australia East and DHM Environmental Software Engineering Pty Ltd for the Managing Climate Variability Research and Development Program.